Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Jason Whitlock = Brilliant
Another great article from Jason Whitlock http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7955740/Am-I-supposed-to-be-mad-about-LeBron
Monday, March 24, 2008
Some Economics Links
JP Morgan buys Bear Stearns for $2/share. This is fantastic news. One, JP Morgan picked up Bear’s financial obligations, so they believe they can be met, and we don’t get a default that really could trigger a broader financial panic. Two, there’s no government bailout, at least not in this case. Bear fucked up, and they’re paying for it. This is is how financial markets are supposed to work: If you take on too much risk, or evaluate risk incorrectly, you may get burned, and Bear did.
The Buck Stops Where?: If you want to be a pessimist, the way that the Fed is cheapening the dollar is the best argument that our immediate economic future is dim. We’ve seen scattered reports in the last two weeks that the recession is already abating and that economic growth should resume in the next quarter, so why is the Fed still pushing interest rates down? This would be a good time for President Bush to step in and show the sort of economic leadership he showed earlier in his tenure when he pushed for lower marginal tax rates, elimination of the dividend tax (albeit temporarily), and freer trade. The editorial argues that the Bush administration has tacitly approved of Bernanke’s rate cuts, and if that’s true, it’s a huge mistake. A weak dollar will drive investment funds out of the country at a time when we need more coming in to help ease the credit crunch. This is one example where the equity markets have it wrong. The Fed needs to start bumping rates back up, and sooner rather than later.
The Buck Stops Where?: If you want to be a pessimist, the way that the Fed is cheapening the dollar is the best argument that our immediate economic future is dim. We’ve seen scattered reports in the last two weeks that the recession is already abating and that economic growth should resume in the next quarter, so why is the Fed still pushing interest rates down? This would be a good time for President Bush to step in and show the sort of economic leadership he showed earlier in his tenure when he pushed for lower marginal tax rates, elimination of the dividend tax (albeit temporarily), and freer trade. The editorial argues that the Bush administration has tacitly approved of Bernanke’s rate cuts, and if that’s true, it’s a huge mistake. A weak dollar will drive investment funds out of the country at a time when we need more coming in to help ease the credit crunch. This is one example where the equity markets have it wrong. The Fed needs to start bumping rates back up, and sooner rather than later.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Soul (less) Food
I was approached by a colleague yesterday about a soul food delivery business one of her friends was starting. As my colleague divulged the details I was skeptical about the whole structure of her friends business, sure they made up fancy menus, but the food she made was not cooked to order, but cooked the night before to ensure timely delivery. As a favor to my colleague I decided to order one of the meals, I went with the turkey meatloaf, the least offensive choice on the menu and standard soul food fare. The problems started from there, no one answered the phone at this woman's house/restaurant last night I was hoping to get more order for lunch, I did not even get to place the order until 12:30. I don't like late lunches but I had point to much effort in at this point to quit without my meatloaf. The food came about a half an hour ago, I paid ($ for the meatloaf and cabbage, I thought that seemed high but figured at least the portions would be large. My food arrived on a paper plate covered with plastic wrap, I mean could they not at least spring for Styrofoam containers , especially with the nine bucks I paid. I was immediately disappointed with the paltry portions, a small slice of meatloaf that was bone dry and what looked like an ice cream scoop of cabbage, my request for hot sauce was also rebuffed when I talked to the restaurant. I am all for trying new places and people doing something different in the food world, but this was an example of someone with an idea, but no preparation behind it, thou roughly disappointing meal.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Peak Oil
With oil prices seeming to settle in around $100 a barrel - an alarming number, but not all that surprising when you consider the dollar’s weakness - perhaps it’s time for some contrarian thinking on the arrival of the so-called “Peak Oil” state.
“The World Has Plenty of Oil.” Mr. Saleri’s conclusion:
Sufficient liquid crude supplies do exist to sustain production rates at or near 100 million barrels per day almost to the end of this century.
His strongest point, beyond the straight recitation of statistics on what we know is in the ground and how much we actually consume, is that high oil prices will tend to create incentives for alternatives, both alternative fuel/energy sources, but also alternative extraction techniques. Oil that was not profitable to extract at $50 a barrel may be quite profitable at $100 barrel, and if oil prices remain high, previously untapped sources of oil will come on line. (A 2005 study by the RAND corporation said that a “surface retorting complex” for extracting oil from shale “is unlikely to be profitable unless real crude oilprices are at least $70 to $95 per barrel (2005 dollars).”)
All in all it’s a rather different message than what you might read in your daily fishwrap or what you’ll hear from any environmental group. Oil will run out eventually, but it’s not likely to happen in our lifetimes
“The World Has Plenty of Oil.” Mr. Saleri’s conclusion:
Sufficient liquid crude supplies do exist to sustain production rates at or near 100 million barrels per day almost to the end of this century.
His strongest point, beyond the straight recitation of statistics on what we know is in the ground and how much we actually consume, is that high oil prices will tend to create incentives for alternatives, both alternative fuel/energy sources, but also alternative extraction techniques. Oil that was not profitable to extract at $50 a barrel may be quite profitable at $100 barrel, and if oil prices remain high, previously untapped sources of oil will come on line. (A 2005 study by the RAND corporation said that a “surface retorting complex” for extracting oil from shale “is unlikely to be profitable unless real crude oilprices are at least $70 to $95 per barrel (2005 dollars).”)
All in all it’s a rather different message than what you might read in your daily fishwrap or what you’ll hear from any environmental group. Oil will run out eventually, but it’s not likely to happen in our lifetimes
Monday, March 3, 2008
Baltimore Inner Harbor Trip/ Eats
The gf and I took a trip to Baltimore on Saturday, having not been in a while I was interested in Baltmores development as a major metropolitan area. Our obvious starting out point was the aquarium, a bit touristy yes, but definitely the most solid value outside an orioles game in the area. We got the 4-D experience package which included our standard aquarium and a 4-D show the show was definitely the filet of the trip it was educational and fun, albeit too brief. The aquarium offers solid to above average shark exhibits, and some interesting fish and snakes overall I rate the aquarium and 8.0 out of 10, the lack of hammerheads brought it down a point. Next we went on a readers reccomendation to the Wharf Rat, according to their website the Wharf Rat is a brewery that offers standard British pub fare, I had my heart set on a sheppards pie, but it wasnt offered, nor was bangers and mash. In fact the only traditional pub item was the fish in chips. I settled on the shrimp salad wrap, the salad was bland no seasoning, and a complete lack of depth of flavor. Hillary went with the Veggie Burger her standard choice, she also said it was below average and im not sure but I dont think you find veg burgers at Traditional British Pubs either. There was an abundance of restaurant choices, a lot of them chains ie. California pizza kitchen, the cheescake factory, Ruth Chris, all the usual suspects, I wanted to do something non turisty though perhaps next time we will try Little Italy. The area overall has developed dramatically, with a great overall ambiance, with an emphasis on the arts. I would reccomend Baltimore as a day trip, or even maybe a weekend trip in the summer, I cant say it offers enough value to garner a full vacation right now but its on its way.
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